When Diplomacy Fails Podcast

In this first of two episodes with Thom Daly, we focus on the United States and its position in the world following the Trump administration's many blunders and betrayals in foreign policy, trade policy, and many more things besides. If you believe what Trump has done is antithetical to America and what it is supposed to represent, then you'll be in good company. Please join us for a passionate conversation, and let me know what you think. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The traditional picture of British intervention in the First World War normally comes down to one issue - Belgium. On 4 August, Britain did declare war on Germany. However, before this monumental step took place, Britain had already made its choice - or, rather, the British Cabinet had. The Liberal government was against intervention in a majority, and we have seen countless manifestations of this position over the previous days. Asquith, Grey, and Churchill wanted to intervene, but how could they persuade their colleagues of this? In this episode, we discover that the reasons for the government's conversion to intervention came not from Belgium, or France, or even Luxemburg, but from internal political factors.Simply put, when Grey, Asquith, Churchill and others signalled that they would resign if neutrality became policy, and when the Conservative opposition signalled that they would march to war if in power, the remaining Cabinet members faced an impossible choice. Either they could swallow their oppositio

The Schleiffen Plan demanded an invasion of the small Grand Duchy of Luxemburg, where German forces would seize key railway installations, facilitating their march into Belgium, and then to France. Of course, nobody told the Luxemburgers, but Berlin was very eager to make it clear that this unannounced invasion was not an invasion at all. Oh no, this was merely a precautionary measure, essential for German security. If the Luxemburgers complied peacefully, all would be well. If not, well, then the Luxemburgers must be mad to face down the full might of 7/8 of the German army which barrelled towards them. As hundreds of thousands of soldiers flooded westwards, Europe was alight with diplomatic activity, complete with questions which really should have been answered by now. Peace was all but lost, but that did not mean the war had to arrive with any measure of clarity.Support the July Crisis series, join the conversation, and find out more through these links:Do you want ad-free episodes with scripts attached,

Now that it was clear Germany would have to face the Entente, and likely Britain's imminent intervention, Berlin became much more active in sending diplomatic feelers across Europe. Romania, Bulgaria, Italy, and the Ottoman Empire, were all ideal targets. Some were erstwhile allies, others convenient partners, but could they be relied upon now, when the war had become reality?In St Petersburg, the Russian answer to Germany's ultimatum was finally delivered, even if it took several hours for it to reach Berlin. However Sazonov might try to dress it up - however much editorialising the final meeting between he and the German ambassador endured - one thing could not be denied. Russia and Germany were now at war, and both conceived of this conflict as purely defensive in nature. Each had a point, but neither were able to pull back, and talk increasingly turned from preserving peace to preparing for war, as the desperate diplomacy of all sides did its work.Support the July Crisis series, join the conversation, and

We open with the shattered dreams of Kaiser Wilhelm II, as the British claim a 'misunderstanding' must have occurred to make Berlin believe Britain and France could remain neutral. The rollercoaster of emotions ended with Wilhelm's bitter confirmation to Moltke - he could do what he liked now. What Moltke liked to do and what he had to do were one and the same. It was time to switch back on the Schlieffen Plan, which meant world war was inevitable. And yet, Germany delayed its declaration of war on France, even as mobilisation was announced in Paris, and Italy signalled it would remain neutral. Germany's diplomatic options had shrank dramatically. All that now existed was Vienna, and the hope that the pressure campaigns in Constantinople would finally pay off, yet there were no guarantees. The only guarantee was that war was now official, even if St Petersburg had yet to confirm it...Support the July Crisis series, join the conversation, and find out more through these links:Do you want ad-free episodes with

In the final hours of peace, the German government was led to believe that a miracle had occurred. Incredibly, Britain had affirmed its intention not only to remain neutral, but to guarantee the neutrality of France as well. Where had such a monumental offer come from? Was it legitimate, or the product of a 'misunderstanding' between the German ambassador and the British government? In this episode, we examine this infamous chapter in the crisis historiography. Had the British Foreign Secretary's vagueness caught up with him, or was Lichnowsky, the German ambassador, to blame? Had they got their wires crossed, or was something more fascinating going on under the surface, in a city where petitioners bombarded London with requests for support, and more information? Let's find out, as we try to understand this misunderstanding.Support the July Crisis series, join the conversation, and find out more through these links:Do you want ad-free episodes with scripts attached, and bonus content? Support us on Patreon an

After that disgraceful display in the White House, I couldn't stay silent any longer. Three years on from when I first offered my thoughts on the situation, in this very personal and raw episode, I cover the multilayered implications of the current crisis. What is Trump playing at? Is this new turn in American foreign policy going to fix anything, or is it merely emboldening Russia, weakening Ukraine, and making everyone less safe? You can probably predict where I stand, but if you feel like you're losing your mind right now, I hope you can some catharsis from this extended rant.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We're in the endgame now, but somehow, not everyone got the message.There was plenty of waiting to be done. Berlin was waiting on Russia's reply to its ultimatum, and France was also expected to reply, but the generals felt they could not wait. Who knew how far Russia's mobilisation had gone, or how close Germany was to disaster? With this added time pressure, the Kaiser approved general mobilisation, as Europe reacted to the news that war would soon erupt. Yet, at the final moment, a lifeline - a message from London, that British and French neutrality could be guaranteed, if only Germany would agree to respect it. Such a momentous idea, in a day of watershed moments, characterised the final hours of European peace.Support the July Crisis series, join the conversation, and find out more through these links:Do you want ad-free episodes with scripts attached, and bonus content? Support us on Patreon and you can suggest July Crisis episodes!Join our Facebook group as we make our way through this fascinating seri

In our final JULY episode of the July Crisis, we return to Britain, where the pressure was building to make a decision. Russian mobilisation was clearly in the air, and if the news was true, German mobilisation would soon follow. Was peace possible even now? Many in Britain insisted it could, and declared that to fight a war in the name of a far off Austro-Serbian conflict was anathema to British interests - and British honour.But the interventionist camp was growing in strength as well. They had The Times on their side, but the Cabinet was as divided as the country. Into this tangled web of red lines and principles, Sir Edward Grey would have to navigate his colleagues somewhere. They couldn't leave France in the lurch, but the public wouldn't have it - not unless a moral case could be made. It was now known that France would respect Belgian neutrality, but Germany would not...Support the July Crisis series, join the conversation, and find out more through these links:Do you want ad-free episodes with s

Now that Berlin had accepted that war with Russia was inevitable, it remained to prepare the diplomatic ground.German diplomacy had worked behind the scenes to court Romania and the Ottoman Empire, but the latter effort bore the most significant fruit. The Italians were less dependable, but there remained precious little time to persuade Austria to grant her the required concessions. And yet, the German ambassador kept seeking a way out when among his Russian peers. The Tsar insisted it was impossible to stop the mobilisation, but was this true? Sazonov might claim that mobilisation did not have to mean war, but could he guarantee this if Austrian troops invaded Serbia?The scales were falling, but they had not yet hit the ground. Just as the Tsar could not offer clarity, the Kaiser's men were unable to confirm or deny their position on Belgian neutrality, despite knowing the importance of this question in London. Grey's diplomacy had been outpaced by the ultimata from Berlin, but as the hourglass drained, the

As the news of Russian mobilisation and Germany's Kriegsgefahr spread across Europe, urgent telegrams followed.Whether in London, Berlin, or Paris, the picture was becoming clearer, but that did not mean contemporaries were content to allow the march to war. The Tsar had burned his bridges in Berlin, as the disgusted Germans scoffed at his decision to mobilise while requesting their mediation. Could he not understand that it was a provocation to prepare his entire army on their borders? Could Britain not see that Austria could give no concessions, and that this would not have made a difference anyway? Could the French not appreciate that necessity demanded she be neutralised first?It was not cold hearted aggression or a lust for world conquest that spurred the German government forward, but the immediate threat to her security, and the worrying sign that no powers outside of her immediate alliance appeared to be listening to her anymore. Although Berlin had been honest about her intentions since Russia's

Russian general mobilisation was underway, and with red imperial posters announcing this grave new step, it could hardly be kept a secret. Yet, somehow, Germany seemed the only power truly in the loop. The question was, why were France and Britain unaware of it? Were they unaware, thanks to their ambassadors in St Petersburg, or had London and Paris chosen to ignore this seismic step, in their rush to blame Berlin?The behaviour of Ambassadors Buchanan and Paleologue certainly deserves some scrutiny. Both men were on location in St Petersburg, and could see exactly what German ambassador Pourtales could see, so why had their announcements taken so long to arrive? Until they got official confirmation, the British and French governments could not be expected to act, and certainly would not restrain Russia.The Russian government had a vested interest in maintaining this confusion, and Sergei Sazonov made little effort to spread the news with an official announcement. The news was spreading, but slowly, and Sazono

By now, Europe was on a knife edge.In Berlin, more and more rumours were pouring in that Russian general mobilisation was underway. In Vienna, no statesman was willing to make any concessions. Paris and London were both running shockingly blind. In St Petersburg, the morning of 31 July meant the official beginning of general mobilisation - with official red notices plastered across the city to drive it home.When Ambassador Pourtales came upon these, he went immediately to Sazonov, and in their sharp conversation one thing became immediately clear to him - Russia was mobilising after all. The frightful rumours were true, and the only question now was how far along in these preparations she truly was. Pourtales fired a telegram to Berlin, informing the government that the Rubicon had been crossed.Many miles away, the German government was biting its final fingernail when the telegram arrived. They were twenty minutes away from implementing their own measures - the Immediate Danger of War. With this confirmation

The 30 July was a turning point for the British Cabinet. When the German Chancellor made his bid for British neutrality, yet refused to guarantee the independence of Belgium or to rule out annexations of French colonies, it set in motion a terrible chain of events.Sir Edward Grey planned to use this faux pas to pile more pressure on the non-interventionists, who seemed to be growing in power every day. His Cabinet was thoroughly divided, but there was one bright spark - Ireland. Thanks to a last minute compromise between Nationalist and Unionist figures, the Home Rule crisis was postponed, for now.Although the Cabinet was united in revelling in this good news, it was not agreed when it came to the question of intervening in the unfolding crisis. As the full details of the arrangement with France were unknown to them, non-interventionists could not imagine any reason why their country should join the war on her side. Some felt so strongly about maintaining British neutrality, in fact, that they were willing to

The Russian decision to commence general mobilisation against Austria and Germany was made in the afternoon of 30 July, ultimately by the Tsar.It took 24 hours of intense pressure by several leading Russian officials, but after backtracking the previous day, Tsar Nicholas was finally persuaded to go all in. His anxious generals were told that there was no going back - he would not change his mind again, and they could smash their telephone if they wished to guarantee it. But why were they in such a rush to mobilise the entire Russian army in the first place? Accounts of the origins of the First World War, if they cover this pivotal decision, tend to explain it as an example of Russian aggression, and proof that the Russians, rather than the Germans, were in fact responsible for the outbreak of the war. But there was more going on in the Tsar's court than this.The Russian government had technically jumped the shark, but they had done so for several reasons which at the time, appeared justifiable. The German am

Welcome to our first episode of 2025! We return to a pivotal moment in the crisis, when Germany experienced yet another 180 in policy.A day which began with a frantic German effort to pressure Austria into making concessions soon devolved into the more familiar mission - preparing the realm for war. What had caused this shift in German policy? Why had Bethmann Hollweg and Jagow given up on restraining their ally? Had they resigned themselves to a world war? The answer lay in Russia, and the preparations Russia was making to implement general mobilisation.If the Tsar had mobilised his entire army against Austria and Germany, then it was hardly possible for Berlin to stand aside and watch. It was also impossible to imagine either side backing down, when doing so now would mean a shameful, expensive retreat, with no guarantees for security or satisfaction. The contemporaries had painted themselves into a corner, and in this episode, you could argue, the writing was now clearly on the wall.Support the July Crisis

As Thursday 30 July progressed, one thing seemed clear to the German Chancellor and Foreign Minister - Austria had to be stopped, before the crisis deteriorated any further.Use the code KAISER to get 40% off your first month of a $5 membership on Patreon - 50+ hours of exclusive content including the Age of Bismarck await!Not sure what to get your favourite history friend? Why not give them the gift of a free month of our $5 membership?The solution appeared to lie in drawing some commitments out of her, and perhaps preparing the ground for some kind of compromise. It was vague, but Bethmann and Jagow depended on Tschirschky, their ambassador to Vienna, to help them over the line. Could Berchtold be persuaded? Tschirschky, in fact, had gone native, but that was far from their only problem.Having pushed matters to this point, Berchtold now feared Berlin might abandon the alliance. To get ahead of this danger, Vienna would have to raise the stakes - she would have to commit to general mobilisation. This was inde

Use the code KAISER to get 40% off your first month of a $5 membership on Patreon - 50+ hours of exclusive content including the Age of Bismarck await!Not sure what to get your favourite history friend? Why not give them the gift of a free month of our $5 membership?By the morning of 30 July 1914, the German government was undergoing something of an identity crisis. Was Berlin the resolute ally, determined to support Austria whatever the cost, or was she the rational actor, determined to avoid war, even if this proved painful? To the German Chancellor and Foreign Minister, the answer wasn't immediately clear, but they were certain that where Austria was concerned, enough was enough. It was time for Vienna to explain what it planned to do in Serbia, and if necessary, it was time to consider the possibility of compromise, by using any one of the options floated in Europe over the last few days.The reason for this abrupt change in Germany's tone can be explained by news of Russia's mobilisation against Austria.

Use the code WDF24 at checkout and get 50% off a $5 monthly membership on Patreon! This offer will expire soon!By the evening of 29 July, a new wave of panic was overcoming the German government. In Berlin, the question of restraining Austria had long been treated with a wink and a nod, but news of Russian mobilisation seemed to change everything.For Bethmann Hollweg and Jagow, this change moved them to take a stand against Austrian policy at long last. They demanded answers, compromise, and more information, and the Chancellor was willing to go further still. Although long since forgotten in the mad scramble that followed, Bethmann was sufficiently alarmed to advocate the nuclear option - he would cancel the blank cheque entirely, if Austria did not see sense.This message would be as terrifying as it was confusing for the Austrians, who had frequently been assured of their ally's solidarity, and of their freedom to craft whatever policy they wanted. But with Britain stating its conditional neutrality, France

Use the code WDF24 at checkout and get 50% off a $5 monthly membership on Patreon!Austria's bombardment of Belgrade represented the first shots of the First World War, though contemporaries could not have known this yet - they were more focused on what Russia was doing.As news of Russia's partial mobilisation filtered through Europe, it caused a major crisis in the German Foreign Office. For Jagow, Germany's Foreign Minister and director of its policy towards Austria since the beginning, Russia's preparations meant nothing less than the complete collapse of his entire world view.If Russia would not stand back and permit Austrian justice, then surely that meant war was inevitable?Desperate to avoid the European war he feared, Jagow went to great lengths to work out a solution. He believed he found it in the partnership with Bethmann Hollweg, the Chancellor he had spent several weeks undermining. If these two German statesmen could put their heads together, and wrest concessions or at least some answers out of