When Diplomacy Fails Podcast

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As they had done up to this point, the British continued to try to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis, even as the opportunities shrank before their eyes. Amidst warnings pinged between London and Berlin that under certain circumstances, their respective neutrality could not be guaranteed, the German Chancellor sent an ill-advised appeal for the British to stay out. The effort was likely influenced by the atmosphere of panic then building in Berlin, owing to news of Russian preparations.As the scales were falling from the eyes of those that had always insisted on Russian neutrality, Bethmann Hollweg created headaches for himself with his explanation of German policy. Germany would not harm the Dutch, nor take any French territory. But what of French colonies, and what of Belgium? To this, Bethmann could make no promises, and here was perhaps his greatest error in the crisis. It seemed small on paper, but for those in Britain eager to weigh in on the Entente side, Bethmann's dishonourable bargain was jus

The dawn of a new day did not bring any new peacemaking opportunities. In their own way, Austria, Germany and Russia were immovable in their main goal - they would not back down, even if it cost them everything.That such a roadblock sat in the way of peace did not prevent Kaiser Wilhelm and Tsar Nicholas from engaging in their famed, eleventh hour telegram exchange. The Nicky-Willy telegrams have often been highlighted as an example of the inherent pacifism of these conservative monarchs, but what hope did this initiative really have?One emerging issue was the increased tensions between Austria and Germany. Despite urging them to do so for several days, Vienna had not provided its ally with any plans for its post-war treatment of Serbia. Frustrated with Austrian intransigence and the refusal to grant concessions to Italy, the German Chancellor pursued a short-lived but incredibly fascinating mission - to drive it home to Austria that if she would not clarify her aims or help herself, Germany was not willing t

Although the Austro-Serb War was now a reality, Britain did not know this until the evening of 28 July. In the meantime, Sir Edward Grey was determined to do all he could to make the mediation scheme work. But not everyone Grey dealt with could be described as sincere, and this included members of his own Cabinet.Churchill had acted provocatively and pre-emptively in mobilising the fleet and moving it to its battle stations. The Cabinet remained divided over whether to choose a side, but the dilemma was clear. If she declared herself for Russia and France, those powers would be emboldened, and might take greater risks. If, conversely, she declared neutrality, the same effect could be felt in Berlin and Vienna. The solution was thus - still - to keep her options open, but this did not mean British diplomacy slept on 28 July, far from it.Although the goal was the same, the landscape was rapidly changing under her feet. It was difficult to reconcile Austro-German goals of a limited Serb war with the need Russian

For two and a half years, Russia has been waging a full scale war against Ukraine. In response, the West has mobilised an economic coalition of states determined to level sanctions against the aggressor, ideally, to force it to the peace table. Clearly, Russia has not been deterred, but how much of an impact are the sanctions really having? In her book Punishing Putin, Stephanie Baker analyses the reality behind these measures, but also their sheer significance. Indeed, we have entered a new era of Russian relations with the west, and there is no going back.Thanksss to Stephanie for joining me, please show your support by getting your excellent new book here [Amazon], also available in your favourite book shop! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After weeks of delay, hesitation and complications, Austria-Hungary finally delivered its declaration of war on Serbia shortly after noon on 28 July 1914.This, we are often told, represented the beginning of the First World War. But was it as straightforward as that? Contemporaries did not necessarily believe that all hope for peace had been lost. A degree of optimism remained, even in Berlin, where Russia's intervention was perceived possible, but not inevitable.Now that Austria had made its choice, what would Russia choose to do? As we see, Sazonov was depressed and angry by the Austrian act. In this cynical mood, he took several steps which were designed to ratchet up the pressure on Vienna to hold back, and on Berlin to persuade its ally to do so. And there was no guarantee that Austrian and Serbian forces would even meet on the field.Serbia had withdrawn its army to the interior, and Habsburg armies were only beginning to be mobilised. Another fortnight was required before the army would be ready, but wh

The 28 July 1914 is best remembered today as the point of no return, as Austria declared war on Serbia.However, as we will see in this episode, the announcement of this Austro-Serb war, made in the afternoon, and reaching Europe's capitals by the evening, did not ruin the prospects for peace as we might expect. Many contemporaries still believed that it was possible to preserve peace, and foremost among these was Kaiser Wilhelm II. Weeks before, he had given the green light to the blank cheque, but on this morning, Wilhelm finally read Serbia's reply to Austria's ultimatum, and in his view, all reasons for war were now gone.Wilhelm now proposed a way out of the crisis - Austria would occupy Belgrade, in lieu of Serbia's commitment to dismantle the Pan Serb propaganda and fulfil Austria's remaining demands. This was the Halt in Belgrade, and it was to have a short, but fascinating shelf life, while experiencing several ups and downs before it was eventually killed. In this episode, we trace this idea, and why

On this otherwise unassuming Monday in 1914, Austria-Hungary was preparing to declare war on Serbia.The declaration would come the following day, but in the meantime, Germany assisted Austria in keeping up appearances. Those tenacious Brits were at it again, and Grey's mediation proposal still hung in the air. Could a rejection of this scheme worsen the crisis? Perhaps, so it was necessary to tread carefully. The mediation idea would be passed onto Vienna, albeit without much enthusiasm, and Austria could maintain its image as the power in search of justice. But other concerns were rising to the surface. The Russians were furthering their mobilisation efforts, and looked determined to continue their pressure campaign against Austria. But still, an optimistic view of Russian intervention reigned in Vienna, which stressed that the Tsar would bark but not bite. All evidence to the contrary was ignored, and encouraged but not directed by Berlin, Austria prepared to cut through all this mediation noise, and shatte

In this enormous episode, we examine the largely forgotten story of British efforts to resolve the crisis, and efforts at home to prepare the people for what might come next.Although Austria's ultimatum had expired two days before, there was still room for diplomacy to work, and Sir Edward Grey was determined to give it his best shot. To preserve peace, Grey pressed his conference scheme to the European courts. When this was rejected, he modified his approach, and accepted other suggestions like bilateral Austro-Russian negotiations. Telegrams pinged back to London, reporting on the deteriorating situation, yet Grey held firm to the principle that Britain should not declare itself. She had more leverage, he believed, if she maintained her 'free hand.'In his very short address to the Commons, Grey alluded to the conference scheme, and stressed the government's commitment to peace, as well as its freedom of action. Yet, he did not reject claims made by The Times and other papers, which emphasised Britain's

If Austria-Hungary wanted the war with Serbia, it would have to get its skates on. Europe was eagerly looking for any sign of a way out, even if Austria was not.The British were central in pressing the need for mediation, but they knew that Germany's inclusion was key if it was to work. The Germans, it was reported, anticipated British neutrality. This was wrong, it was insisted, because Britain would tend to her interests. Even more, Britain had kept its fleet, mobilised through annual manoeuvres, intact as the crisis escalated. Did this not prove Britain's seriousness?Whether Britain was sincere or not, it mattered less than what Austria did. By now it was widely known that Austrian armies were not marching, and if the rumours were true, and she could not march until 12 August, then that gave plenty of time for things to blow over. But before Sir Edward Grey could put the finishing touches on another Balkan conference, he first had to ensure German support, and this was proving impossible to obtain.The Germ

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The ultimatum had expired, and yet somehow, Austria had not declared war on Serbia. What was going on?Well, despite pushing the crisis forward with reckless abandon, the Austrian chief of staff Conrad von Hotzendorff now seemed awake to the dangers facing the country. The army would not be ready for war until 12 August, he said. This was a shock to the Germans, who continued to expect a lightning Austrian strike at Belgrade. But it did give the diplomats time to do their work.From Britain, Sir Edward Grey believed a mediation scheme involving four uninvolved powers was the answer. He encouraged Berlin to push this idea, and the Germans did so, but only reluctantly, and out of fear of offending Britain if they did not. But the question of Russia was arguably the most important of all, and the Tsar was apparently now willing to exercise his military muscle by approving the period preparatory to war, and the mobilisation of key military districts.This should have shown Austria that Russian intervention was highl

Here we address the question - now that Austria's ultimatum to Serbia had expired, and the Austrians had evacuated Belgrade, what was Russia going to do about it?The answer is as complicated as it is controversial. Russia's response revolved around military preparations; specifically, those preparations which would make the mobilisation of its enormous army across such a vast empire easier to carry out. These measures were called the Period Preparatory to War, and on this day, these measures were officially approved by the Tsar and his Ministers. What did this mean? Was the Period Preparatory to War simply mobilisation under a different name, or was it a reasonable response to the crisis, which merely granted Russia more diplomatic leeway?Unsurprisingly, the answer is contentious. To some, this was the key aggravating factor which transformed the July Crisis from a regional dispute into the world war it became. To others, Russia's preparations may have been inflammatory, but they were not necessarily sinister

By now, everyone was expecting Austria-Hungary to do something once its ultimatum expired later in the day, but what? And could this response be adjusted, and peace be preserved, if only a certain diplomatic finesse was applied?In Britain, Sir Edward Grey certainly hoped so. The solution, to him, seemed one of mediation, where the four uninvolved powers - Britain, France, Germany and Italy - gathered to arbitrate the Austro-Serb dispute. The question then became, could Germany be brought on side? Many were doubtful. It did not help that the German claim it had known nothing of the ultimatum was highly suspicious. Was it truly believable that Austria had acted entirely alone? This question informed the responses. In Russia, Sergei Sazonov continued to lead a firmer and more assertive foreign policy, but to what end? As he learned of the British mediation plans, Sazonov did not rule them out, but he also failed to mention that Russia's preliminary military measures were already underway. It was understood that

We return to our narrative on an eventful day in world history. By the end of 24 July, Russia had established its policy towards Austria's ultimatum. But what was this policy, and why did Russia act so differently to crises in the past?We find Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Sazonov to be central to the events that transpired next. But what did Sazonov want? He authorised the period preparatory to war, and signalled his intention to support Serbia via war, if it came to that. This did not mean Sazonov was a warmonger, but he had not been entirely honest with the Central Powers either. Moderate advice was given to Serbia, and the Austrian and German ambassadors were informed that Russia would not look lightly upon an Austrian attack. Seeing German tentacles curling around any Austrian initiative, Sazonov felt he could not back down if Russia wished to retain her prestige, but what did this mean in practice?Further afield, Britain was perhaps the sole power capable of offering a neutral space where mediation co

After a crazy two months, it's time we had a chat.In this episode we'll be talking about the Age of Bismarck Patreon series, which has been advertised for years, and requested for even longer. We finally have a release date, and I can't wait to welcome you all to Bismarck's world.We also talk about the July Crisis series, how it's gone for me so far, and why I feel compelled to change things up. We get a bit personal, but I've never been shy about being honest with you, so thanksss for your patience and enthusiasm!WDF is entering an exciting new phase, but we have to make sure there's a proper balance between Zack's life and Zack's pod-baby, so that we can do justice to the fascinating projects we have in store for you. See you all...soon! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

By late 1912, it appeared the period of Anglo-German detente was over. The Kaiser assembled a War Council, and apparently planned for a war of domination. In fact, appearances were deceptive, and although Britain and Germany's relationship had been damaged, it was still intact. There now emerged a new opportunity to repair it, as the Balkan Wars brought the two disinterested powers together again.The two powers had already achieved a great deal by pushing the naval race to the side. But other questions were more difficult. Both France and Germany came to terms with the role of Belgium in their war plans, but only Germany viewed its violation as a necessity. This key aspect of German strategy was already locked in, but this proved a grave miscalculation. That said, opinions in Berlin had arrived at more optimistic conclusions by 1914. Britain, it was said, faced an internal crisis over Ireland, and those intractable problems meant opportunities for the Central Powers.Yet still, the Anglo-German detente continu

By late 1911, Germany had been embarrassed by the Second Moroccan Crisis, and the Anglo-French Entente had once again rallied. We might have expected Germany to double down on its provocative naval campaign, to increase the pressure on Britain. In fact, what happened instead was the beginning of a period of Anglo-German detente. This was initiated through the Haldane Mission of spring 1912, which sought to exchange restrictions on naval building with political guarantees.The mission was not a success, but it did terrify the French, who worked to consolidate their agreements with Britain on the seas, with dramatic consequences. In this tug of war for Britain's friendship, though, her officials were far less free than they may have assumed. A strong current of anti-German sentiment had become entrenched in London, and it would take braver steps to reserve this trend. Could they do so, and snatch peace from the jaws of conflict? Join me here as we continue our look at Anglo-German relations on the eve of war.Sup

Everyone knows the story of Britain and Germany before 1914. Or at least, they think they do.Anglo-German relations following the Russo-Japanese War seemed bound to enter a period of hostility, enabled by the naval race which forced London to invest heavily in production and innovation, and produced the dreadnought as an unforeseen consequence. But this race to outbuild the other in warship construction did not lead automatically to the events of 1914. Indeed, many possibilities existed for the two rivals to patch things up.This was what the French truly feared, but as they prepared for a second showdown with Berlin in Morocco, the British appeared to stand by them. Was the British Cabinet entirely convinced that Germany was its enemy? Many thought so, but again, matters were not so clear cut. Even Kaiser Wilhelm's disastrous record in PR could not guarantee that these two nations, tied together by so many dynastic, religious, traditional and economic threads, would face each other on opposite sides of the ba

Austria-Hungary finally delivered its ultimatum to Serbia nearly four weeks after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. The journey had been incredibly slow, and the outcome was nothing like the fait accompli its statesmen had originally envisioned, but Austria had officially taken the bold step towards war. What did this infamous ultimatum contain? Did it leave any possibility for Serbia to accept it with some dignity? One point in particular - the participation by Austrian officials in a Serbian investigation - was bound to be unacceptable in Belgrade. Accompanied by a 48 hour deadline, the ultimatum hit the disparate Serb government, then preparing for elections, like a bomb. All was seemingly going according to plan. Now all Austria had to do was wait for its bombshell to settle in Belgrade. As for Russia, surely the Tsar would not intervene to help regicides, right? RIGHT?! Support the July Crisis series, join the conversation, and find out more through these links:Do you want ad-free episodes with scrip